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Centennial-scale shifts in storm frequency captured in paleohurricane records from the Bahamas arise predominantly from random variability

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doi: 10.1029/2020GL091145
Authors:Wallace, Elizabeth J.; Coats, Sloan; Emanuel, Kerry; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
Author Affiliations:Primary:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program in Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Other:
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, United States
Volume Title:Geophysical Research Letters
Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 48(1). Publisher: American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, United States. ISSN: 0094-8276
Publication Date:2021
Note:In English. 56 refs.; illus., incl. sketch maps
Summary:Event-based paleohurricane reconstructions of the last millennium indicate dramatic changes in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes on centennial timescales. It is difficult to assess whether the variability captured in these paleorecords is related to changing climate or randomness. We assess whether centennial-scale active and quiet intervals of intense hurricane activity occur in a set of synthetic storms run with boundary conditions from an earth system model simulation of the last millennium. We generate 1,000 pseudo sedimentary records for a site on South Andros Island using a Poisson random draw from this synthetic storm data set. We find that any single pseudo sedimentary record contains active and quiet intervals of hurricane activity. The 1,000-record ensemble average, which reflects the common signal of climate variability, does not. This suggests that the record of paleohurricane activity from The Bahamas reflects variability in hurricane frequency dominated by randomness and not variability in the climatic conditions. Abstract Copyright (2020), The Authors.
Subjects:Cenozoic; Climate; Cyclones; Frequency; Hurricanes; Indicators; Quaternary; Sediments; Statistical analysis; Storms; Variations; Bahamas; Caribbean region; West Indies; Centennial scale; South Andros Island
Coordinates:N230000 N240000 W0770000 W0780000
Record ID:897276-6
Copyright Information:GeoRef, Copyright 2021 American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data from John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, United Kingdom
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