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Medium-term earthquake forecast using gravity monitoring data; evidence from the Yutian and Wenchuan earthquakes in China

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doi: 10.1155/2012/307517
Authors:Zhu Yiqing; Zhan, F. Benjamin
Author Affiliations:Primary:
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Wuhan, China
Other:
Wuhan University, China
Volume Title:International Journal of Geophysics
Source:International Journal of Geophysics, Vol.2012. Publisher: Hindawi, London, International. ISSN: 1687-885X
Publication Date:2012
Note:In English. 21 refs.; illus., incl. 2 tables, sketch maps
Summary:Gravity changes derived from regional gravity monitoring data in China from 1998 to 2005 exhibited noticeable variations before the occurrence of two large earthquakes in 2008 in China-the 2008 Yutian (Xinjiang) Ms=7.3 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan (Sichuan) Ms=8.0 earthquake. Based on these gravity variations, a group of researchers at the Second Crust Monitoring and Application Center of China Earthquake Administration made a suggestion in December of 2006 that the possibility for the Yutian (Xinjiang) and Wenchuan (Sichuan) areas to experience a large earthquake in either 2007 or 2008 was high. We review the gravity monitoring data and methods upon which the researchers reached these medium-term earthquake forecasts. Experience related to the medium-term forecasts of the Yutian and Wenchuan earthquakes suggests that gravity changes derived from regional gravity monitoring data could potentially be a useful medium-term precursor of large earthquakes, but significant additional research is needed to validate and evaluate this hypothesis.
Subjects:Earthquake prediction; Earthquakes; Geophysical methods; Gravity field; Gravity methods; Great earthquakes; Wenchuan earthquake 2008; Asia; China; Far East; Yutian earthquake 2008
Record ID:812953-39
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