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Variation and prediction trend of precipitation series for the Tekes River basin during the last 236 years

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Authors:Chen Feng; Yuan Yujiang; Wei Wenshou; Yu Shulong; Fan Ziang; Zhang Ruibo; Zhang Tongwen; Shang Huaming
Author Affiliations:Primary:
China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Desert and Meteorology, Urumqi, China
Volume Title:Shandi Xuebao Journal of Mountain Science
Source:Shandi Xuebao = Journal of Mountain Science, 28(5), p.545-551. Publisher: Academia Sinica, Chengdu, Sichuan, China. ISSN: 1008-2786
Publication Date:2010
Note:In Chinese with English summary. 24 refs.; illus., incl. 4 tables, sketch map
Summary:The tree-ring chronologies were established according to samples from the Tekes River Basin. Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlations were significant between the tree-ring chronologies and the previous July through present year's June total precipitation, and the maximum correlation coefficient was 0.727. Using XBDt(STD), KRKt(STD)tree-ring chronology series, the precipitation series during the last 236 years was reconstructed, with an explained variance of 54%. The equation was stable by leave-one-out cross validation. Analyzing the precipitation series, we found out that:(1)During the last 236 years, the precipitation of Tekes River Basin had 8 wet periods and 8 dry periods;(2)The reconstructed precipitation in the Tekes River Basin during the last 236 years had significant periods of 10.3, 7.5, 6.0, 3.0 and 2.1 years. The abrupt change of precipitation occurred in 1790, 1911, 1929 and 1974. Using Caterpillar-SSA analysis method, through the process of embedding, singular value decomposition, grouping and diagonal averaging, The trend of precipitation series for the next 20 years in the Tekes River Basin is forecasted. The results show an increasing trend from 2000 to 2006. In the subsequent decade the precipitation should reduce quickly, and it will reach a minimum near 2013 to 2016.
Subjects:Annual variations; Atmospheric precipitation; Drainage basins; Hydrology; Prediction; Rivers and streams; Asia; China; Far East; Xinjiang China; Tekes River basin
Coordinates:N433427 N433427 E0822714 E0822714
Record ID:701649-6
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